Crashing the Dance

Seeding (S-Curve)

After selecting the 37 best at-large teams to go with the 31 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the S-Curve by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Seed lines 1 to 4RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
S-CurveSchoolConf.PtsW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
-1LouisvilleBE16.0029-51231137410615102014-04-0
^2GonzagaWCC15.7930-2516918141641191819-010-0
^3KansasB1215.7029-5445121366131015111714-18-1
-4DukeACC15.6027-575115916971492013-02-0
v5IndianaB1015.2227-63381110137931261615-05-0
-6New MexicoMWC15.0028-618132311339518122110-01-0
^7Miami-FloridaACC15.0027-614945151158615111812-23-0
v8GeorgetownBE14.9725-69711710325951381312-16-0
-9FloridaSEC14.7926-72117191151511471312-06-0
^10Ohio StateB1014.5626-76810211474811031316-06-0
^11Saint LouisA1014.2227-61515166135267514101413-28-1
v12Michigan StB1014.1124-8869108213801021114-05-0
v13MichiganB1013.6025-7121021266163821041415-14-0
^14MarquetteBE13.2123-822141489442711031013-15-0
v15SyracuseBE13.0926-91318131661926-21231214-05-0
^16ArizonaP1212.6325-723201538622611261513-13-0
Seed lines 5 to 8RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
S-CurveSchoolConf.PtsW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
^17WisconsinB1012.4423-1110223113796580111612-16-0
^18UNLVMWC12.4125-8393517187234831591210-25-0
v19Kansas StB1212.0426-720121814114316-181918-010-0
v20Oklahoma StB1212.0024-81916272283926092715-19-0
^21MemphisCUSA11.9830-427171241955030951721-09-0
^22CreightonMVC11.7827-72123263211220411051517-25-0
v23UCLAP1211.6225-9412525209513511371412-32-0
-24VCUA1011.3726-82621242593133-4124914-09-0
-25ButlerA1010.1825-8463023356104601021015-07-0
^26Notre DameBE9.9125-92429352455325-190816-08-0
^27PittsburghBE9.8824-81119442755824-392715-19-0
v28North CarolinaACC9.7223-101728191773612-690914-14-0
v29North Carolina StACC9.5924-1025323652423-37-21117-13-0
-30San Diego StMWC9.5420-103133333723435-38-2612-04-0
-31Colorado StMWC9.4623-83731202162013-41141112-14-0
-32MissouriSEC9.4423-101632363942524-1100313-010-0
Seed lines 9 to 12RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
S-CurveSchoolConf.PtsW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
^33OregonP128.8226-8474530962441921217-16-0
v34MinnesotaB108.7320-12293485-3435-311269-32-0
-35CincinnatiBE8.4822-1134504903515-49-2413-07-0
v36Iowa StateB128.4522-1132403344914-48-1414-28-1
-37ColoradoP128.3121-1151385721224090812-22-0
-38IllinoisB107.9521-12443965-2846-37-3414-25-0
^39TempleA107.9023-9554246533341104813-37-1
v40OklahomaB127.9020-1143414843013-490511-25-1
^41Wichita StMVC7.8726-84235376079131831118-37-0
v42VillanovaBE7.4719-1340523429545-38-3211-25-1
^43CaliforniaP127.3820-11563553415762507-3513-14-0
v44Boise StMWC7.1619-1058485213724-380511-24-0
^45MississippiSEC6.9726-835472997513093917-211-2
^46La SalleA106.4721-957464454022-26-2615-16-0
v47BelmontOVC6.3624-650272228131801-164918-49-0
-48St. Mary'sWCC6.3326-633262923124501-2501021-110-0
Seed lines 13 to 16RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
S-CurveSchoolConf.PtsW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
New49Middle Tenn StSB5.0328-553242840181501-21-21127-212-0
-50AkronMAC5.0225-6624342144801-152920-312-2
^51BucknellPat4.0627-5735167132801032524-417-0
^52South Dakota StSum3.8022-9936277136811-140218-514-3
^53ValparaisoHorz3.7725-7655853127200-22-1923-410-1
-54New Mexico StWAC3.7223-10795645138701-14-2119-412-0
^55DavidsonSC3.4025-7646163199000-32-2423-317-3
^56MontanaBsky2.7523-613366642014900-12-3-221-119-0
-57Florida Gulf CoastAsun2.6922-1012693121115611-22-2120-616-5
-58IonaMAAC2.6320-13989898711100-130417-105-2
New59Northwestern StSlnd2.6219-813879841412300-13-2-316-315-1
v60HarvardIvy2.2718-91059211288200-31-4017-411-2
New61PacificBW2.1420-1213097921112601-12-1-118-911-2
New62AlbanyAE1.7624-10167129163510800-12-2-222-617-1
-63Long IslandNEC1.0020-1316317911792860000-2-120-1111-3
-64James MadisonCAA1.0020-14169182136725900-10-3-120-1113-6
-65Western KentuckySB1.0019-15182149154416000-50-6-719-913-2
^66Southern USWAC0.9920-92141801781419200-11-1-419-718-3
New67North Carolina A&TMEAC0.9518-16242213229419700-21-1-617-1415-7
-68LibertyBSth0.0012-20260288252031300-20-4-512-1610-13

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.