Seeding (S-Curve)

After selecting the 37 best at-large teams to go with the 31 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the S-Curve by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Seed lines 1 to 4RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
S-CurveSchoolConf.PtsW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
^1KentuckySEC16.0027-1112113746511102116-05-0
v2SyracuseBE15.9927-1421313257613122214-04-0
-3Ohio StateB1015.7823-5297117145621051313-05-0
-4KansasB1215.6222-5356410374951051112-06-0
-5Michigan StB1015.4021-556428167731051211-04-0
-6DukeACC14.8723-494314815621281611-03-0
-7North CarolinaACC14.7324-467512952621061514-05-0
-8MissouriB1214.0825-3731410938364971416-18-0
^9BaylorB1213.7622-51214916530721161111-06-0
^10MarquetteBE13.6122-5141087823351941313-04-0
v11GeorgetownBE13.3819-6158132051337371912-04-0
-12Wichita StMVC13.3023-410191523121212-1851415-15-0
-13IndianaB1013.2920-71124183011135183812-25-0
-14MichiganB1013.2520-7201310576248311589-15-0
^15WisconsinB1012.5920-7815222243124-271913-14-0
^16FloridaSEC12.5122-613111615724130851114-35-0
Seed lines 5 to 8RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
S-CurveSchoolConf.PtsW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
-17LouisvilleBE12.4221-61917203349161831013-15-0
^18New MexicoMWC12.1021-5162129658634184913-18-1
^19UNLVMWC11.6620-62220121322125172713-17-0
v20Florida StACC11.5919-72316199859240941010-23-1
-21TempleA1011.5021-532221726817344961212-24-0
^22Kansas StB1210.8819-81835403514535060513-26-0
v23Saint LouisA1010.6321-51730231973901-161915-07-0
v24CreightonMVC10.3024-527272846918142621218-17-0
v25VanderbiltSEC9.6919-82833262443413092710-14-0
-26GonzagaWCC9.4921-5302921498803073814-18-0
-27VirginiaACC9.4621-62426344234212-185813-37-0
^28Seton HallBE9.1219-941305502024-37-1712-13-0
v29MemphisCUSA9.1219-825272763312-45-2714-14-0
-30ConnecticutBE8.9917-10382448-161608059-22-0
-31Notre DameBE8.9719-84018418814747382511-26-0
v32West VirginiaBE8.9217-1033436602914-29158-22-0
Seed lines 9 to 12RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
S-CurveSchoolConf.PtsW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
^33Southern MissCUSA8.6920-5461117610131961211-24-1
v34CaliforniaP128.6822-62128314093500-373915-27-0
v35AlabamaSEC8.5817-929365802711-47-1610-12-0
v36PurdueB108.4317-1034553408015-28019-26-0
v37St. Mary'sWCC8.1321-539233332105013072314-013-0
-38HarvardIvy7.9522-337313263826121421218-18-1
^39TexasB127.5417-11265856-16713-54-5013-26-0
v40BYUWCC7.4721-631466584111-361415-111-0
^41San Diego StMWC7.3418-65125351826314-161412-18-0
v42Murray StOVC7.2623-147123710211413344919-113-0
-43IllinoisB106.8016-125569100-55134-36-4-110-25-0
-44Iowa StateB126.6119-83640422148412-23-3516-26-0
-45NorthwesternB106.2916-11544886-32512-55-6111-04-0
-46Miami-FloridaACC6.1516-1048494416811-53-7213-04-0
^47MinnesotaB105.9117-10497598-44312-35-3212-25-0
v48CincinnatiBE5.8619-8438528416324150414-38-1
Seed lines 13 to 16RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
S-CurveSchoolConf.PtsW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
v49Long BeachBW5.8217-742373987122800-62-5015-010-0
^50Middle Tenn StSB5.6923-444363850123200-1411019-19-0
^51Mississippi StSEC5.4619-960315973-1580306-1413-26-0
New52ArizonaP125.3919-945687057101-26-2313-17-0
-53IonaMAAC5.3822-6504478101901163716-311-2
-54BelmontAsun5.2621-7356585125601-22-2619-310-2
-55Oral RobertsSum4.3625-5654537157500-241521-215-0
^56DrexelCAA4.2623-564337171128300-242419-314-0
v57AkronMAC4.1018-8636151109400-33-5015-010-0
-58DavidsonSC3.7519-7747295125511-21-3118-312-1
-59NevadaWAC3.5820-510040573699200-33-1317-112-0
-60MontanaBsky3.0418-61029589111170101-2017-313-1
-61TX-ArlingtonSlnd2.8419-69599971212600-10-3-219-316-1
^62BucknellPat2.7219-8108798388700-21-5018-211-0
v63ValparaisoHorz2.4218-101379779913200-141514-76-3
-64Long IslandNEC1.9821-715587451417600-121119-614-1
-65UNC AshevilleBSth1.9516-91441221081222200-20-4-416-512-1
New66Stony BrookAE1.8618-81511561291123900-20-2018-613-3
-67Norfolk StMEAC1.0418-818714523466600-220016-613-3
-68Miss Valley StSWAC0.1716-112191471581521000-60-8-916-315-1

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.