Crashing the Dance

Seeding (S-Curve)

After selecting the 37 best at-large teams to go with the 31 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the S-Curve by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Seed lines 1 to 4					Rank			Conf		N/C	Sparkline	1-25	1-50		1-100		1-200	101+	201+
S-Curve	School	Conf.	Pts	W-L	Sag.	Poll	RPI	RPI	+/-	RPI	Sparkline	W	W	+/-	W	+/-	+/-
1	Louisville	BE	16.00	29-5	1	2	3	1	13	7		4	10	6	15	10	20	14-0	4-0
2	Gonzaga	WCC	15.79	30-2	5	1	6	9	18	14		1	6	4	11	9	18	19-0	10-0
3	Kansas	B12	15.70	29-5	4	4	5	12	13	6		6	13	10	15	11	17	14-1	8-1
4	Duke	ACC	15.60	27-5	7	5	1	15	9	1		6	9	7	14	9	20	13-0	2-0
5	Indiana	B10	15.22	27-6	3	3	8	11	10	13		7	9	3	12	6	16	15-0	5-0
6	New Mexico	MWC	15.00	28-6	18	13	2	3	11	3		3	9	5	18	12	21	10-0	1-0
7	Miami-Florida	ACC	15.00	27-6	14	9	4	5	15	11		5	8	6	15	11	18	12-2	3-0
8	Georgetown	BE	14.97	25-6	9	7	11	7	10	32		5	9	5	13	8	13	12-1	6-0
9	Florida	SEC	14.79	26-7	2	11	7	19	11	5		1	5	1	14	7	13	12-0	6-0
10	Ohio State	B10	14.56	26-7	6	8	10	2	11	47		4	8	1	10	3	13	16-0	6-0
11	Saint Louis	A10	14.22	27-6	15	15	16	6	13	52		6	7	5	14	10	14	13-2	8-1
12	Michigan St	B10	14.11	24-8	8	6	9	10	8	21		3	8	0	10	2	11	14-0	5-0
13	Michigan	B10	13.60	25-7	12	10	21	26	6	16		3	8	2	10	4	14	15-1	4-0
14	Marquette	BE	13.21	23-8	22	14	14	8	9	44		2	7	1	10	3	10	13-1	5-0
15	Syracuse	BE	13.09	26-9	13	18	13	16	6	19		2	6	-2	12	3	12	14-0	5-0
16	Arizona	P12	12.63	25-7	23	20	15	38	6	2		2	6	1	12	6	15	13-1	3-0
Seed lines 5 to 8					Rank			Conf		N/C	Sparkline	1-25	1-50		1-100		1-200	101+	201+
S-Curve	School	Conf.	Pts	W-L	Sag.	Poll	RPI	RPI	+/-	RPI	Sparkline	W	W	+/-	W	+/-	+/-
17	Wisconsin	B10	12.44	23-11	10	22	31	13	7	96		5	8	0	11	1	6	12-1	6-0
18	UNLV	MWC	12.41	25-8	39	35	17	18	7	23		4	8	3	15	9	12	10-2	5-0
19	Kansas St	B12	12.04	26-7	20	12	18	14	11	43		1	6	-1	8	1	9	18-0	10-0
20	Oklahoma St	B12	12.00	24-8	19	16	27	22	8	39		2	6	0	9	2	7	15-1	9-0
21	Memphis	CUSA	11.98	30-4	27	17	12	4	19	55		0	3	0	9	5	17	21-0	9-0
22	Creighton	MVC	11.78	27-7	21	23	26	32	11	22		0	4	1	10	5	15	17-2	5-0
23	UCLA	P12	11.62	25-9	41	25	25	20	9	51		3	5	1	13	7	14	12-3	2-0
24	VCU	A10	11.37	26-8	26	21	24	25	9	31		3	3	-4	12	4	9	14-0	9-0
25	Butler	A10	10.18	25-8	46	30	23	35	6	10		4	6	0	10	2	10	15-0	7-0
26	Notre Dame	BE	9.91	25-9	24	29	35	24	5	53		2	5	-1	9	0	8	16-0	8-0
27	Pittsburgh	BE	9.88	24-8	11	19	44	27	5	58		2	4	-3	9	2	7	15-1	9-0
28	North Carolina	ACC	9.72	23-10	17	28	19	17	7	36		1	2	-6	9	0	9	14-1	4-0
29	North Carolina St	ACC	9.59	24-10	25		32	36	5	24		2	3	-3	7	-2	11	17-1	3-0
30	San Diego St	MWC	9.54	20-10	31	33	33	37	2	34		3	5	-3	8	-2	6	12-0	4-0
31	Colorado St	MWC	9.46	23-8	37	31	20	21	6	20		1	3	-4	11	4	11	12-1	4-0
32	Missouri	SEC	9.44	23-10	16	32	36	39	4	25		2	4	-1	10	0	3	13-0	10-0
Seed lines 9 to 12					Rank			Conf		N/C	Sparkline	1-25	1-50		1-100		1-200	101+	201+
S-Curve	School	Conf.	Pts	W-L	Sag.	Poll	RPI	RPI	+/-	RPI	Sparkline	W	W	+/-	W	+/-	+/-
33	Oregon	P12	8.82	26-8	47		45	30	9	62		4	4	1	9	2	12	17-1	6-0
34	Minnesota	B10	8.73	20-12	29		34	85	-3	4		3	5	-3	11	2	6	9-3	2-0
35	Cincinnati	BE	8.48	22-11	34		50	49	0	35		1	5	-4	9	-2	4	13-0	7-0
36	Iowa State	B12	8.45	22-11	32		40	33	4	49		1	4	-4	8	-1	4	14-2	8-1
37	Colorado	P12	8.31	21-11	51		38	57	2	12		2	4	0	9	0	8	12-2	2-0
38	Illinois	B10	7.95	21-12	44		39	65	-2	8		4	6	-3	7	-3	4	14-2	5-0
39	Temple	A10	7.90	23-9	55		42	46	5	33		3	4	1	10	4	8	13-3	7-1
40	Oklahoma	B12	7.90	20-11	43		41	48	4	30		1	3	-4	9	0	5	11-2	5-1
41	Wichita St	MVC	7.87	26-8	42	35	37	60	7	9		1	3	1	8	3	11	18-3	7-0
42	Villanova	BE	7.47	19-13	40		52	34	2	95		4	5	-3	8	-3	2	11-2	5-1
43	California	P12	7.38	20-11	56	35	53	41	5	76		2	5	0	7	-3	5	13-1	4-0
44	Boise St	MWC	7.16	19-10	58		48	52	1	37		2	4	-3	8	0	5	11-2	4-0
45	Mississippi	SEC	6.97	26-8	35		47	29	9	75		1	3	0	9	3	9	17-2	11-2
46	La Salle	A10	6.47	21-9	57		46	44	5	40		2	2	-2	6	-2	6	15-1	6-0
47	Belmont	OVC	6.36	24-6	50	27	22	28	13	18		0	1	-1	6	4	9	18-4	9-0
48	St. Mary's	WCC	6.33	26-6	33	26	29	23	12	45		0	1	-2	5	0	10	21-1	10-0
Seed lines 13 to 16					Rank			Conf		N/C	Sparkline	1-25	1-50		1-100		1-200	101+	201+
S-Curve	School	Conf.	Pts	W-L	Sag.	Poll	RPI	RPI	+/-	RPI	Sparkline	W	W	+/-	W	+/-	+/-
49	Middle Tenn St	SB	5.03	28-5	53	24	28	40	18	15		0	1	-2	1	-2	11	27-2	12-0
50	Akron	MAC	5.02	25-6	62		43	42	14	48		0	1	-1	5	2	9	20-3	12-2
51	Bucknell	Pat	4.06	27-5	73		51	67	13	28		0	1	0	3	2	5	24-4	17-0
52	South Dakota St	Sum	3.80	22-9	93		62	77	13	68		1	1	-1	4	0	2	18-5	14-3
53	Valparaiso	Horz	3.77	25-7	65		58	53	12	72		0	0	-2	2	-1	9	23-4	10-1
54	New Mexico St	WAC	3.72	23-10	79		56	45	13	87		0	1	-1	4	-2	1	19-4	12-0
55	Davidson	SC	3.40	25-7	64		61	63	19	90		0	0	-3	2	-2	4	23-3	17-3
56	Montana	Bsky	2.75	23-6	133		66	64	20	149		0	0	-1	2	-3	-2	21-1	19-0
57	Florida Gulf Coast	Asun	2.69	22-10	126		93	121	11	56		1	1	-2	2	-2	1	20-6	16-5
58	Iona	MAAC	2.63	20-13	98		98	98	7	111		0	0	-1	3	0	4	17-10	5-2
59	Northwestern St	Slnd	2.62	19-8	138		79	84	14	123		0	0	-1	3	-2	-3	16-3	15-1
60	Harvard	Ivy	2.27	18-9	105		92	112	8	82		0	0	-3	1	-4	0	17-4	11-2
61	Pacific	BW	2.14	20-12	130		97	92	11	126		0	1	-1	2	-1	-1	18-9	11-2
62	Albany	AE	1.76	24-10	167		129	163	5	108		0	0	-1	2	-2	-2	22-6	17-1
63	Long Island	NEC	1.00	20-13	163		179	117	9	286		0	0	0	0	-2	-1	20-11	11-3
64	James Madison	CAA	1.00	20-14	169		182	136	7	259		0	0	-1	0	-3	-1	20-11	13-6
65	Western Kentucky	SB	1.00	19-15	182		149	154	4	160		0	0	-5	0	-6	-7	19-9	13-2
66	Southern U	SWAC	0.99	20-9	214		180	178	14	192		0	0	-1	1	-1	-4	19-7	18-3
67	North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.95	18-16	242		213	229	4	197		0	0	-2	1	-1	-6	17-14	15-7
68	Liberty	BSth	0.00	12-20	260		288	252	0	313		0	0	-2	0	-4	-5	12-16	10-13

Notes:

This list reflects the latest estimate of the 1-68 S-Curve seeding in the 2013 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee.
Through all games
Coaches poll estimated through Mar. 16
RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
The S-Curve is estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
The selection committee generates the S-Curve before placing teams in the familiar 1 to 16 seeds seen in the bracket. The S-Curve rankings are used to balance the bracket and help with geographic placement.
Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating among those with the fewest losses (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
Shaded teams would have automatic berths if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
The "points" column can roughly be used as a weighted estimate of that team's 1-16 seed, where a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.