Crashing the Dance

Seeding (S-Curve)

After selecting the 37 best at-large teams to go with the 31 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the S-Curve by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Seed lines 1 to 4					Rank			Conf		N/C	Sparkline	1-25	1-50		1-100		1-200	101+	201+
S-Curve	School	Conf.	Pts	W-L	Sag.	Poll	RPI	RPI	+/-	RPI	Sparkline	W	W	+/-	W	+/-	+/-
1	Kentucky	SEC	16.00	27-1	1	1	2	1	13	7		4	6	5	11	10	21	16-0	5-0
2	Syracuse	BE	15.99	27-1	4	2	1	3	13	2		5	7	6	13	12	22	14-0	4-0
3	Ohio State	B10	15.78	23-5	2	9	7	11	7	14		5	6	2	10	5	13	13-0	5-0
4	Kansas	B12	15.62	22-5	3	5	6	4	10	37		4	9	5	10	5	11	12-0	6-0
5	Michigan St	B10	15.40	21-5	5	6	4	2	8	16		7	7	3	10	5	12	11-0	4-0
6	Duke	ACC	14.87	23-4	9	4	3	14	8	1		5	6	2	12	8	16	11-0	3-0
7	North Carolina	ACC	14.73	24-4	6	7	5	12	9	5		2	6	2	10	6	15	14-0	5-0
8	Missouri	B12	14.08	25-3	7	3	14	10	9	38		3	6	4	9	7	14	16-1	8-0
9	Baylor	B12	13.76	22-5	12	14	9	16	5	3		0	7	2	11	6	11	11-0	6-0
10	Marquette	BE	13.61	22-5	14	10	8	7	8	23		3	5	1	9	4	13	13-0	4-0
11	Georgetown	BE	13.38	19-6	15	8	13	20	5	13		3	7	3	7	1	9	12-0	4-0
12	Wichita St	MVC	13.30	23-4	10	19	15	23	12	12		1	2	-1	8	5	14	15-1	5-0
13	Indiana	B10	13.29	20-7	11	24	18	30	1	11		3	5	1	8	3	8	12-2	5-0
14	Michigan	B10	13.25	20-7	20	13	10	5	7	62		4	8	3	11	5	8	9-1	5-0
15	Wisconsin	B10	12.59	20-7	8	15	22	22	4	31		2	4	-2	7	1	9	13-1	4-0
16	Florida	SEC	12.51	22-6	13	11	16	15	7	24		1	3	0	8	5	11	14-3	5-0
Seed lines 5 to 8					Rank			Conf		N/C	Sparkline	1-25	1-50		1-100		1-200	101+	201+
S-Curve	School	Conf.	Pts	W-L	Sag.	Poll	RPI	RPI	+/-	RPI	Sparkline	W	W	+/-	W	+/-	+/-
17	Louisville	BE	12.42	21-6	19	17	20	33	4	9		1	6	1	8	3	10	13-1	5-0
18	New Mexico	MWC	12.10	21-5	16	21	29	6	5	86		3	4	1	8	4	9	13-1	8-1
19	UNLV	MWC	11.66	20-6	22	20	12	13	2	21		2	5	1	7	2	7	13-1	7-0
20	Florida St	ACC	11.59	19-7	23	16	19	9	8	59		2	4	0	9	4	10	10-2	3-1
21	Temple	A10	11.50	21-5	32	22	17	26	8	17		3	4	4	9	6	12	12-2	4-0
22	Kansas St	B12	10.88	19-8	18	35	40	35	1	45		3	5	0	6	0	5	13-2	6-0
23	Saint Louis	A10	10.63	21-5	17	30	23	19	7	39		0	1	-1	6	1	9	15-0	7-0
24	Creighton	MVC	10.30	24-5	27	27	28	46	9	18		1	4	2	6	2	12	18-1	7-0
25	Vanderbilt	SEC	9.69	19-8	28	33	26	24	4	34		1	3	0	9	2	7	10-1	4-0
26	Gonzaga	WCC	9.49	21-5	30	29	21	49	8	8		0	3	0	7	3	8	14-1	8-0
27	Virginia	ACC	9.46	21-6	24	26	34	42	3	42		1	2	-1	8	5	8	13-3	7-0
28	Seton Hall	BE	9.12	19-9	41		30	55	0	20		2	4	-3	7	-1	7	12-1	3-0
29	Memphis	CUSA	9.12	19-8	25		27	27	6	33		1	2	-4	5	-2	7	14-1	4-0
30	Connecticut	BE	8.99	17-10	38		24	48	-1	6		1	6	0	8	0	5	9-2	2-0
31	Notre Dame	BE	8.97	19-8	40	18	41	8	8	147		4	7	3	8	2	5	11-2	6-0
32	West Virginia	BE	8.92	17-10	33		43	66	0	29		1	4	-2	9	1	5	8-2	2-0
Seed lines 9 to 12					Rank			Conf		N/C	Sparkline	1-25	1-50		1-100		1-200	101+	201+
S-Curve	School	Conf.	Pts	W-L	Sag.	Poll	RPI	RPI	+/-	RPI	Sparkline	W	W	+/-	W	+/-	+/-
33	Southern Miss	CUSA	8.69	20-5	46		11	17	6	10		1	3	1	9	6	12	11-2	4-1
34	California	P12	8.68	22-6	21	28	31	40	9	35		0	0	-3	7	3	9	15-2	7-0
35	Alabama	SEC	8.58	17-9	29		36	58	0	27		1	1	-4	7	-1	6	10-1	2-0
36	Purdue	B10	8.43	17-10	34		55	34	0	80		1	5	-2	8	0	1	9-2	6-0
37	St. Mary's	WCC	8.13	21-5	39	23	33	32	10	50		1	3	0	7	2	3	14-0	13-0
38	Harvard	Ivy	7.95	22-3	37	31	32	63	8	26		1	2	1	4	2	12	18-1	8-1
39	Texas	B12	7.54	17-11	26		58	56	-1	67		1	3	-5	4	-5	0	13-2	6-0
40	BYU	WCC	7.47	21-6	31		46	65	8	41		1	1	-3	6	1	4	15-1	11-0
41	San Diego St	MWC	7.34	18-6	51	25	35	18	2	63		1	4	-1	6	1	4	12-1	8-0
42	Murray St	OVC	7.26	23-1	47	12	37	102	11	4		1	3	3	4	4	9	19-1	13-0
43	Illinois	B10	6.80	16-12	55		69	100	-5	51		3	4	-3	6	-4	-1	10-2	5-0
44	Iowa State	B12	6.61	19-8	36	40	42	21	4	84		1	2	-2	3	-3	5	16-2	6-0
45	Northwestern	B10	6.29	16-11	54		48	86	-3	25		1	2	-5	5	-6	1	11-0	4-0
46	Miami-Florida	ACC	6.15	16-10	48		49	44	1	68		1	1	-5	3	-7	2	13-0	4-0
47	Minnesota	B10	5.91	17-10	49		75	98	-4	43		1	2	-3	5	-3	2	12-2	5-0
48	Cincinnati	BE	5.86	19-8	43		85	28	4	163		2	4	1	5	0	4	14-3	8-1
Seed lines 13 to 16					Rank			Conf		N/C	Sparkline	1-25	1-50		1-100		1-200	101+	201+
S-Curve	School	Conf.	Pts	W-L	Sag.	Poll	RPI	RPI	+/-	RPI	Sparkline	W	W	+/-	W	+/-	+/-
49	Long Beach	BW	5.82	17-7	42	37	39	87	12	28		0	0	-6	2	-5	0	15-0	10-0
50	Middle Tenn St	SB	5.69	23-4	44	36	38	50	12	32		0	0	-1	4	1	10	19-1	9-0
51	Mississippi St	SEC	5.46	19-9	60	31	59	73	-1	58		0	3	0	6	-1	4	13-2	6-0
52	Arizona	P12	5.39	19-9	45		68	70	5	71		0	1	-2	6	-2	3	13-1	7-0
53	Iona	MAAC	5.38	22-6	50		44	78	10	19		0	1	1	6	3	7	16-3	11-2
54	Belmont	Asun	5.26	21-7	35		65	85	12	56		0	1	-2	2	-2	6	19-3	10-2
55	Oral Roberts	Sum	4.36	25-5	65		45	37	15	75		0	0	-2	4	1	5	21-2	15-0
56	Drexel	CAA	4.26	23-5	64	33	71	71	12	83		0	0	-2	4	2	4	19-3	14-0
57	Akron	MAC	4.10	18-8	63		61	51	10	94		0	0	-3	3	-5	0	15-0	10-0
58	Davidson	SC	3.75	19-7	74		72	95	12	55		1	1	-2	1	-3	1	18-3	12-1
59	Nevada	WAC	3.58	20-5	100	40	57	36	9	92		0	0	-3	3	-1	3	17-1	12-0
60	Montana	Bsky	3.04	18-6	102		95	89	11	117		0	1	0	1	-2	0	17-3	13-1
61	TX-Arlington	Slnd	2.84	19-6	95		99	97	12	126		0	0	-1	0	-3	-2	19-3	16-1
62	Bucknell	Pat	2.72	19-8	108		79	83	8	87		0	0	-2	1	-5	0	18-2	11-0
63	Valparaiso	Horz	2.42	18-10	137		97	79	9	132		0	0	-1	4	1	5	14-7	6-3
64	Long Island	NEC	1.98	21-7	155		87	45	14	176		0	0	-1	2	1	1	19-6	14-1
65	UNC Asheville	BSth	1.95	16-9	144		122	108	12	222		0	0	-2	0	-4	-4	16-5	12-1
66	Stony Brook	AE	1.86	18-8	151		156	129	11	239		0	0	-2	0	-2	0	18-6	13-3
67	Norfolk St	MEAC	1.04	18-8	187		145	234	6	66		0	0	-2	2	0	0	16-6	13-3
68	Miss Valley St	SWAC	0.17	16-11	219		147	158	15	210		0	0	-6	0	-8	-9	16-3	15-1

Notes:

This list reflects the latest estimate of the 1-68 S-Curve seeding in the 2012 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee.
RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
The S-Curve is estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
The selection committee generates the S-Curve before placing teams in the familiar 1 to 16 seeds seen in the bracket. The S-Curve rankings are used to balance the bracket and help with geographic placement.
Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating among those with the fewest losses (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
Shaded teams would have automatic berths if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
The "points" column can roughly be used as a weighted estimate of that team's 1-16 seed, where a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.