Crashing the Dance

At-Large Selection

The NCAA Division I Mens Basketball Championship tournament includes 68 teams. Of these, 32 qualify automatically by winning their conference. The other 36 are selected by the committee. The committee's first step is to "select the 36 best teams to fill the at-large berths." Through a series of votes, the committee selects the best teams that do not win the automatic berth from their conference.

The Crashing the Dance at-large selection model attempts to predict which teams the committee will select by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's at-large selection decisions about those teams. The model generates a selection confidence (from 0% to 100%) for each team that essentially predicts how likely the committee is, based on their past behavior, to select that team for an at-large berth. Ranking all of the teams by their selection confidence and excluding the 32 automatic qualifiers gives us the 36 at-large selections. For convenience, we (roughly) separate the teams into three groups: those that are looking good, those that should not get comfy, and those that must win their conference.

See the selection notes for more information.

Looking good

These teams (listed by conference) should be in the field regardless of whether they are the automatic qualifier from their conference. Some of these teams will likely win their conference (the current conference leader is marked with type Q), but the model gives each of these teams essentially a 100% chance of at-large selection (projected at-large selections are marked with type L) if today were Selection Sunday. (Hint - move the mouse over the data for more information.)

 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
George WashingtonA10L24-84839303063034-2113913-07-0
MassachusettsA10L24-849342355472731361211-14-0
Saint LouisA10L25-637192623933251941416-15-0
VCUA10L26-821271379311501251314-15-0
CincinnatiAACL27-62716211912322621041117-010-0
ConnecticutAACL26-82420222571737292917-19-0
LouisvilleAACQ29-52420121539450941420-010-0
DukeACCL26-8669119144611261214-26-0
North CarolinaACCL23-928172720737450115912-35-0
SyracuseACCL27-51915172491127514111713-26-1
VirginiaACCQ28-6758417552511371415-08-0
 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
MichiganB10L25-887113137751051481311-24-0
Michigan StB10Q26-891318149355711021516-03-0
Ohio StateB10L25-914232538362611371312-33-0
WisconsinB10L26-710126266147216111810-21-0
BaylorB12L22-11292631412123101122610-15-0
Iowa StateB12Q26-712107167931151581311-06-0
KansasB12L24-959351056135178127-03-0
OklahomaB12L23-926212422526182113912-15-0
TexasB12L23-103829362745827-2123611-17-0
CreightonBEL26-7111410911192621471512-04-0
VillanovaBEL28-44856131014115122213-12-0
Wichita StMVCQ33-013241021203311112322-010-0
 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
New MexicoMWCQ27-6311812181522330721620-15-0
San Diego StMWCL27-4231114151528330631521-18-0
ArizonaP12L30-41322133411816122214-04-0
UCLAP12Q26-8151589341831151615-23-1
FloridaSECQ32-23111218410817152715-03-0
KentuckySECL24-101824162171314-2145910-15-0
GonzagaWCCQ27-622251913154402-21061517-26-0

Don't get comfortable

These teams (ordered by at-large selection confidence or chance) still have some work to do. Some would be on the good side of the bubble if today were Selection Sunday, but there are only 36 at-large berths available and things can change quickly. Again, some of these will earn automatic qualification from their conference, but each has one or more holes in their profile. As a result, the model gives each less than a 100% chance of at-large selection.

 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
OregonP12L (22)23-9302928542424-292914-25-0
Saint Joseph'sA10Q24-9593417985361102914-16-0
Kansas StB12L (23)20-123939503718347-19-1311-26-1
MemphisAACL (24)22-94022375051834-36-2516-18-0
BYUWCCL (25)22-1143293192913-381814-43-0
Oklahoma StB12L (26)21-1216394672-22015-68-3313-16-0
ColoradoP12L (27)23-1155324231515-38-2715-15-0
PittsburghACCL (28)25-92037393354102-57-2918-07-0
DaytonA10L (29)23-1057434944724-2103813-35-0
Arizona StP12L (30)21-1135443616614-380413-36-0
StanfordP12L (31)21-1232414435025-47-3314-26-0
 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
ProvidenceBEQ23-1146402957022-38-2715-15-0
TennesseeSECL (32)20-1225424045912-47-2413-34-0
XavierBEL (33)21-1244524727324-290612-33-0
IowaB10L (34)20-1217336462-16324-57-3113-27-0
NebraskaB10L (35)19-125436473538834-36-3313-34-0
SMUAACL (36)23-93428534657434-14-2519-310-1
Louisiana TechCUSAL26-73337544311801205-1721-113-1
Southern MissCUSAL25-668313339102701051820-211-0
ArkansasSECL21-1141767716123-291312-37-0
MissouriSECL22-1166497902312-27-2615-25-0
MinnesotaB10L19-13504869-22422-65-6214-24-0
Florida StACCL19-1345556804023-66-6-213-18-0
 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
GeorgetownBEL17-145368102-32535-17-3210-42-1
HarvardIvyQ25-436344563124600-220823-214-1
Wis-Green BayHorzL21-6625776114811-141517-310-0
North Dakota StSumQ22-6653553121600-22-1720-39-0
CaliforniaP12L19-1363635717514-65-6114-25-0
North Carolina StACCL21-1371565916213-66-5115-27-0
IllinoisB10L19-14586570-44314-55-5-114-46-0
Stephen F. AustinSlndQ29-282325152206400-10-11029-118-1
St. John'sBEL20-12477766110012-56-4214-26-0
UtahP12L19-11428064010914-45-4214-27-1
St. Mary'sWCCL21-1167597444901-45-1816-53-1
ManhattanMAACQ25-7756067136500-164819-512-2
 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
ToledoMACL26-61043861102100-172919-112-1
GeorgiaSECL19-13767432620102-57-1-112-57-0
TulsaCUSAQ21-127270281319201-26-1215-59-2
LSUSECL19-1364788107213-34-6115-35-0
ClemsonACCL20-12567965211511-64-5116-37-0
RichmondA10L19-1498737807113-67-4-312-38-0
Middle Tenn StCUSAL22-9966256109201-12-6620-18-1
IonaMAACL22-108358511514800-23-4219-310-0

Must win conference

These teams currently have no shot at being selected at-large, so they need to win their conference. Each is the current leader of its conference, but only those in bold have clinched an automatic bid.

 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
AlbanyAEQ18-14193187198515800-10-1-318-1312-5
MercerAsunQ23-8938194135600-21-2222-514-1
Weber StBskyQ17-111701511291027500-20-2-217-913-5
Coastal CarolinaBSthQ18-12227196153926400-10-5-618-716-4
Cal PolyBWQ11-19174207206-121800-40-5-1011-146-4
DelawareCAAQ25-91066658159600-30-5-125-418-1
Wis-MilwaukeeHorzQ20-13165130148211900-12-2118-911-5
Western MichiganMACQ22-912367341218802-183214-411-0
NCCUMEACQ26-58699128186700-21-2025-223-2
Mt St. Mary'sNECQ16-16214189163523800-30-4-316-1210-7
Eastern KentuckyOVCQ22-91439710499100-22-2120-515-3
 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
AmericanPatQ20-12117119821124200-12-2-218-814-4
UL LafayetteSBQ20-111228811974500-22-3218-610-3
WoffordSCQ17-12191154194910300-30-5-617-714-3
Texas SouthernSWACQ18-14253250226927800-10-2-418-1216-8
New Mexico StWACQ25-9797296114211-23-1222-517-3